UN Environment Programme, Regional Office for West Asia launched on 11 November its Net-Zero Carbon Scenarios for the Energy Sector in West Asia in a side event of COP27 in Sharm el Sheikh, held at the Islamic Development Bank Pavilion at COP27 and gathering academics, country delegates and civil society representatives.
Developed with the support of the Islamic Development Bank, the Swedish International development Agency (SIDA) and the UN Environment Programme, Copenhagen Climate Centre, the report analyzes mitigation actions defined in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), Economic Diversification Plans, and green growth strategies of countries in West Asia. It presents three possible scenarios for climate change mitigation in the region namely, the Business-as-Usual scenario, the Current Policy Scenario, and the Enhanced Climate Action Scenario.
“West Asia countries are increasingly stepping up their efforts to ensure a net zero transition by introducing green growth and eco[1]nomic diversification strategies”, said Mr Sami Dimassi, UNEP representative and Regional Director for West Asia. “The report aims to support and inspire countries in West Asia to further develop their ambitions towards net zero commitment”, he added.
The report indicates that, by deploying technologies that are available today in electricity, transport, industry, service and household sectors, West Asia would be able to bring its emissions to 250 million tCO2 under an Enhanced Climate Action Scenario by 2050, while under the Business-as-usual Scenario, West Asia would double its current emissions to reach more than 2 billion tons by 2050.
According to the same analysis, the implementation of current policies and strategies included can only slow down the emission growth but won’t be able to bring down CO2 emissions from current levels by the same year.
The energy sector is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the West Asia region known to be largely dependent on oil and natural gas to meet its primary energy needs. Nearly half (47%) of the oil produced is used within the transport[1] sector, 33% is used for power generation, and the remainder is used in the industry and household sectors. In addition, 66% of produced gas is used for power generation, the remainder going into the industry sector.
In the context of the scenarios described above, the publication looks at the costs of the different technologies considered. In fact, West Asia region shows great potential for many renewable sources, in particular solar, and wind. All countries in the region have high average solar energy potential, with some of them, having among the highest potentials in the world. A large amount of mitigation can happen at negative abatement costs and can therefore be considered a revenue.
Moreover, decarbonization of the energy sector will create a large number of jobs in the green economy. The report indicates that achieving the renewable energy ambitions of the Enhanced Climate Action Scenario would create more than 17.7 million job-years and 689 thousand permanent jobs to operate and maintain the infrastructure developed under this scenario.