In a virtual event, the Environment Agency–Abu Dhabi (EAD) today released the findings of its fourth Green House Gas (GHG) emissions inventory, using 2018 GHG data and future forecasts until 2030. Two emission scenarios were used, including a Business-As-Usual scenario, as per the state of emissions and implemented mitigation measures in the year 2016 (BAU2016); and a “Mitigation Path” scenario, as per the state of actual emissions in 2018 and the partners’ announced plans and initiatives to mitigate emissions.
The findings were released as part of a comprehensive report containing an executive summary of achievements and key results of the fourth cycle of the GHG emissions inventory and emission projections. These were compiled in close cooperation with the relevant local authorities using the best available data, standard methods, and best practices in compliance with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines.
Findings showed that anthropogenic GHG emissions in Abu Dhabi have been driven largely by economic and population growth and the increasing demand for water and energy. The emirate’s GHG baseline (2010) and update inventories for 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018 have shown that total direct GHG emissions increased by 21.5%, from 99,101 Gg CO2-eq in the year 2010 to 120,405 Gg CO2-eq in 2018.
The trend of emissions (2.8 % average annual growth) was in line with the trend of the emirate’s population (4 %) and GDP (4 %, constant 2007 prices). GHG emissions have shown good correlations with both the population and the GDP.
Compared with the emissions level in 2016, the 2018 emissions decreased by11%, mainly due to the lower fuel quantities used in operation of the transport, oil and gas activities, and due to the improved emission factors in aluminum production processes. Across the different activities in energy, industrial processes, agriculture, land-use change and forestry (LUCF) and waste, the energy sector was the dominant contributor (75.9%) of the emirate’s GHG emissions in 2018.
The key category analysis of GHG emissions in the emirate showed that the CO2 emissions attributed to energy industries (oil, gas, and power, combined with water desalination), manufacturing, road transport and metal industrial processes require particular attention in mitigation plans.
In 2018, between 4,236 to 5,240 Gg of CO2 emissions (≤5.5 % of the emirate’s total CO2 emissions) were sequestered by the extensive natural system of forests, perennial croplands, and mangrove plantations throughout the emirate.
According to the IPCC supplement for wetlands, the added value of Abu Dhabi’s wetlands (mangroves and seagrass meadows) is in holding of around 61,324 Gg of CO2, where carbon is stored in the soil and biomass of the plants. This maximum potential of emissions may be released if the wetlands are extracted or drained.
As for the indirect GHG emissions, the IPCC estimation method showed that the main source of NOx and CO was fuel combustion activities, while the main source of NMVOCs was mineral products (asphalt), and the main source of SOx was oil and gas activities.
For black carbon (BC) emissions as potent climate-warming, the estimates showed 6,045 tons were released in 2018 in Abu Dhabi. Diesel fuel combustion was the dominant source of BC emissions. About 1% of BC emissions came from non-fuel combustion activities.
Considering the amount of emitted GHG gases in the emirate and their global warming potential, CO2 was the major gas mainly emitted from fuel combustion, constituting 89.8 % of the total GHG emissions. Other GHG gases such as methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the F-gases (PFCs, HFCs, SF6) contributed less: 7.9%, 1.4 %, and 0.9% respectively.
The Environment Agency - Abu Dhabi will circulate the inventory results among partners, researchers and decision-makers and ensure that they are used in support of the National Climate Change Plan in the United Arab Emirates and local policies. The Agency will also continue cooperation and coordination with its partners in order to develop and implement effective environmental measures, and enhance priority areas for climate action, such as knowledge and community awareness, the regulatory framework for mitigation and adaptation, technical capacity and competitiveness at regional and international levels.
The comprehensive work performed in the fourth GHG inventory cycle demonstrates an improvement of understanding of the relationship between GHG emissions and anthropogenic activities over time and represents a step forward in the inventory compilation process. The extended scope and analysis of the inventory, as well as the increased interaction with the local stakeholders, contributed to the enhanced quality and reliability of the outcomes.
This inventory revealed success stories of Abu Dhabi in applying the latest international standards and best practices in the process of tracking greenhouse gases from all sources and sinks at the emirate level, and the building of a comprehensive and constantly updated database that is relied upon in policy-making and decision-making. Additionally, adopting the leading proactive approach in building knowledge, capacity strengthening and partnerships in the field of emissions measurement, reporting and verification.