Based on a new study compiled by the Max Planck Institute, parts of the Middle East and North Africa could become uninhabitable by the middle of this century, if temperatures continue to rise, forcing one of the world's largest human migrations to take place.

 

The frightening picture is based on two sets of climate scenarios that show that even if global temperatures are limited, regions in the Middle East and North Africa will still become too hot for human habitation. Study author Johannes Lelieveld and colleagues say that "day temperatures south of the Mediterranean will commonly reach approximately 46°C."

 

One scenario contends that if average global temperatures were to increase by 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, summer temperatures in the affected regions would increase more than two-fold. The increased temperatures, combined with prolonged droughts, and wind-blown desert dust storms would make life miserable for humans, forcing many to migrate. The thought that vast regions would become barren deserts is not pleasant to contemplate.

 

The second scenario assumes that global temperatures will remain below the 2 degree Celsius mark on pre-industrial levels. The study takes into account the possibility of greenhouse gas emissions decreasing by 2040 if nations uphold the Paris climate agreement.

 

The biggest problem found in both scenarios was that global surface temperatures will continue to rise in the Earth's desert regions, mainly in the summer months, where it is already hot and dry. Deserts can't cool very effectively unless there is groundwater evaporation, so this lack of evaporation will only increase greenhouse gasses.

 

Jos Lelieveld, the director at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, said: "In the future, the climate in large parts of the Middle East and North Africa could change in such a manner that the very existence of its inhabitants is in jeopardy. If these projected high temperatures become reality, part of the region may become uninhabitable for some species, including humans."

 

This study, entitled Strongly Increasing Heat Extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st Century, was published in April in the journal Climate Change. (Digital Journal)

 

PHOTO: Egyptian farmer Mohamed Hamid, 62, showing the salt in the soil of his now infertile land in the Nile Delta region of Rosetta, 250 kilometers northwest of the capital Cairo.

CREDIT: File photo/AFP.