Canada’s crude output will more than double to 6.7 million barrels a day by 2030, provided new pipelines such as Keystone XL are built to transport growing oil-sands production, an industry group representing the country’s petroleum producers said.

 

Crude from the oil sands, the largest component of Canadian output, will rise to 5.2 million barrels a day by 2030 from 1.8 million currently, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers said in its 2013 annual forecast. The group boosted its overall estimate for Canada by 500,000 barrels a day from a 2012 outlook.

 

Canada holds the world’s third-largest oil reserves, behind Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, and is the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. The majority of the reserves are held in the oil sands in northern Alberta.

 

The outlook, based on data provided to CAPP by producers about their planned output and price forecasts, hinges on the construction of controversial pipelines such as TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL conduit from Alberta’s oil sands to the U.S. Gulf Coast and Enbridge Inc.’s Northern Gateway from Alberta to the port city of Kitimat, British Columbia.