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'More hot summers' for parts of UK 8/7/2015
Scorching summers such as the one in 2003 look set to become more common in England and Wales, a study suggests.
 
And devastating rains such as in Britain's worst winter in 2013-14 may be less likely in the decades ahead.
 
Work by the Met Office has calculated the odds of particular weather scenarios striking in future years.
 
The computer simulations-based study, in journal Nature Climate Change, finds that milder winters and drier summers will also become more likely.
 
The work draws on a major analysis, known as UKCP09, released back in 2009 which offered projections of the future British climate divided into 30-year periods.
 
This new research instead provides a more detailed focus by giving projections for winters and summers in each individual year from now until the end of the century.
 
The aim is to take more account of the fact that Britain's weather is notoriously variable - fluctuating for natural reasons year to year regardless of human-induced climate change.
 
The authors of the research looked only at data from England and Wales; the analysis did not take into account Scotland or Northern Ireland.
 
Some key conclusions from the study include:
 
  • By 2100, the chances of a summer being hotter than the one in 2003 are 89% - that's odds of roughly 9-out-of-10
  • There is still a 35-40% chance of getting a wetter-than-average summer until 2035 but that risk falls to 20% by 2100
  • The chances of a winter with the same kind of rainfall as in 2013-14 fall to just under 10% by the end of the century
  • And the odds of a very cold winter similar to 2009-10 fall to less than 1% over the same period
 
 
 
 
 
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