The EU's current progress in decarbonising its energy sector will result in only half the emissions cuts that are needed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius in 2050, under a business-as-usual scenario quietly released by the European Commission over the Christmas period.

 

Scientists and EU leaders are agreed that by mid-century, Europe must drastically ramp up energy savings and clean up its power generation sector in order to slash its CO2 emissions by 80-95% compared to 1990 levels, if catastrophic climate change is to be avoided.

 

But according to a European Commission ‘Trends to 2050’ study, which was released below the radar over the Christmas period, the continent is only on track to reduce its emissions by around a third in 2030, and 44% in 2050.

 

The paper only considered existing CO2 reduction schemes, and assumed no new energy and climate policies after 2020. As such, it was pounced on by clean energy advocates as evidence of the need for a new milestone in 2030.

 

Rather than a zero-carbon power sector, the single greenhouse gas cut of 40% by 2030 that currently looks likely to be agreed would put Europe on track for an 80% cut by 2050, environmentalists say.

 

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says this reduction would be in line with a target of containing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide to 450 parts per million. But this would only give the planet a 50/50 chance of keeping global temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius, according to the International Energy Agency.