- Assessment of 69 countries across five indicators, measuring current performance and speed of green transition
- 15 countries are on track to reach net zero in 2050, aligned with the 1.5C target
- Another 20 countries can still realistically achieve that goal
- UK ranks 8th in the global progress ranking - the challenge now is sustaining momentum
Munich, November 18, 2025
Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the global green transition is reaching a decisive moment. Allianz Research’s latest report, “A decade after Paris: progress, paralysis and the race to net zero”, shows that while progress varies widely across countries, many are advancing more quickly than commonly assumed.
The report is based on the findings of the Allianz Research’s Green Transition Tracker which assesses 69 countries across five indicators: carbon intensity, energy intensity, consumption-based and territorial emissions per capita, and the share of low-carbon energy in the power mix. The Tracker uses a “peer and progress” framework that assesses both current decarbonization performance and speed of transition, revealing stark contrasts between regions and income groups.
The peer results reflect familiar global patterns. Lower-income countries, such as Sri Lanka, score strongly due to low per-capita emissions, while European countries like Sweden perform well thanks to sustained decarbonization efforts. Oil-exporting economies rank at the bottom. Of particular concern is the positioning of the world’s two largest emitters: China and the US come in at 57th and 58th place respectively, underlining the scale of their remaining task.
However, the progress scores, which measure the distance to the net zero target in 2050, tell a more encouraging story. Fifteen countries have already covered one-third or more of the distance needed to reach net zero by 2050, which puts them on track if they continue at their current pace. Luxembourg and Switzerland lead this group, with both countries showing high energy efficiency levels driven by a more than 90% share of low carbon electricity in their power mix. A further 20 countries have already advanced at least 20% of the way, leaving them on a steep, but achievable path to meet the 2050 target. Other economies have more ground to cover with the US and China - accounting for around 40% of global emissions – only marginally improving from their 2015 baseline.
“The climate challenge still has steep slopes ahead, but we’ve already made significant progress and should not give up halfway.” said Patrick Hoffmann, ESG Economist at Allianz Research. “Roughly half of the countries assessed are still on track to play their part in limiting global warming to 2°C. This does not mean the mission is accomplished, but it does mean we are not doomed. These examples should serve as motivation for the laggards, including China and the United States.”
The UK ranks 21st among its peers and 8th in the global progress ranking. The country has already closed 39% of the gap to Net Zero 2050, keeping it within reach of the 1.5°C Paris target. Since 2015, emissions have fallen by 27% while GDP has grown by 12%, reducing the carbon intensity of the economy by 35% and lowering the UK’s share of global CO₂ emissions from 1.09% to 0.73%. Low-carbon energy sources now supply 52% of electricity—an increase of 16 percentage points since 2015—while coal use has dropped from 22% to 2%. However, the transition remains uneven. Grid expansion is not keeping pace with renewable growth, leading to curtailment costs and inefficiencies. Energy intensity has improved by 28%, but progress is slowing, and fossil-fuel subsidies have risen by 70% over the past decade amid energy-security concerns. Meanwhile, transport emissions have stagnated, underscoring the need for stronger demand-side action.
“The UK has made measurable progress in reducing emissions while keeping its economy growing, putting it within reach of the 1.5°C target,” said Katharina Utermöhl, Head of Thematic & Policy Research at Allianz Research. “With a strong foundation in low-carbon power and continued improvements in efficiency, the country is well positioned for the next phase of the transition. Ensuring that policies, investment and consumer incentives are well-aligned will now be key to maintaining momentum and keeping the country firmly on its net zero pathway.”
The report concludes that while the global transition is far from complete, it is also far from failing. “The global transition is not a question of possibility, but of pace.” said Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer of Allianz. “Countries that embed climate ambition into their economic and financial frameworks are positioning themselves for stronger, more resilient growth. The challenge ahead is to accelerate investment where it matters most—energy, infrastructure, and technology—to ensure the transition remains both credible and inclusive.”