Experts at AccuWeather say extreme weather events and disasters in the past 12 months have had the costliest and most widespread impacts that Americans have faced in nearly a century.
“The catastrophic wildfires burning in Southern California combined with destructive hurricane impacts last year have been the worst series of natural disasters in America since the Dust Bowl in the 1930s,” AccuWeather Founder and Executive Chairman Dr. Joel N. Myers said. “The Dust Bowl led to a massive migration west to California. Ninety years later, we expect these wildfires, the rising costs of rebuilding and recovery, the challenge of securing and affording insurance, as well as drought and water supply concerns will likely lead to a significant migration out of California over the next few years.”
AccuWeather’s revised preliminary estimate of the total damage and economic loss from the fast-moving, wind-driven infernos in Southern California stands at $250 billion to $275 billion.
When combined with the nine additional weather disasters that AccuWeather issued preliminary estimates for in the past 12 months, Myers says AccuWeather estimates that the total damage and economic loss from extreme weather events over the past year has skyrocketed to $693 billion to $799 billion. That figure is equivalent to nearly 3 percent of the United States annual gross domestic product.
Gusty winds and elevated fire risk return to Southern California next week
A much-needed break from gusty Santa Ana winds is bringing lighter onshore winds and higher humidity levels to the areas of Los Angeles County that were hit hard by destructive wildfires. The favorable conditions that AccuWeather is forecasting through the weekend will allow fire crews to focus on efforts to strengthen containment lines and extinguish hot spots.
One negative effect of the light winds and stable atmosphere will be much less dispersal of any smoke. For this reason, people with respiratory problems should remain indoors in an air-filtered environment when possible and use an N95 respirator mask when outdoors.
Extreme caution and vigilance are still advised in the region. Brush can easily dry out during the afternoon, and embers from smoldering fires can still be lofted into the air by light winds and start new fires.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists are forecasting a moderate Santa Ana wind event early next week as high pressure builds across the Great Basin of the southwestern U.S. and a storm forms off the Pacific coast.
Wind gusts of 40-60 miles per hour are expected in areas prone to Santa Ana winds on Monday and Tuesday, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 85 mph.
"Winds will start to pick up during the day on Monday and be strongest from Monday night into Tuesday," AccuWeather Meteorologist Heather Zehr said.
AccuWeather long-range experts are forecasting a pattern change across much of the U.S. toward the end of January and February that is expected to bring more favorable conditions to Southern California.
"That change is likely to bring warmer weather to the Southeast, milder air to the Northeast and colder conditions to the West," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said. "It is possible that may break the string of strong offshore wind events for Southern California and could lead to some opportunities for rainfall and mountain snow in California."
Major public health risks from smoke and rubble
Air quality reports have improved in many areas across the Los Angeles region, but AccuWeather expert meteorologists warn that even light winds can stir up hazardous ash in damage zones and carry it miles away. Some ash may be too large to be detected by nearby air quality sensors.
Millions of people in the Los Angeles region have been exposed to days of poor and unhealthy air as wildfires burned and continue to smolder. Wildfire survivors, first responders, recovery crews and contractors now face hazardous conditions and toxic materials in neighborhoods that burned.
"Unhealthy air and wildfire smoke can take a tremendous toll on public health, particularly for people who have emphysema, asthma, and other respiratory and cardiovascular conditions,” Myers said. "Some of the buildings that burned have released asbestos, harmful chemicals, and toxic fumes into the air. This is a major disaster with health impacts that will continue for months and years. We saw a similar and tragic outcome after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in New York City. Many first responders were eventually diagnosed with lung cancer and other diseases after being exposed to toxic smoke and rubble. There have been hundreds, if not thousands of premature deaths in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. I believe we may see a similar outcome when we look back at the impacts of these wildfires in five or 10 years.”
Materials and components from homes, businesses, vehicles, electric car batteries, plastics and fuels that burned not only sent dangerous fumes and particulates into the air, but toxic elements may have also contaminated the soil and nearby waterways.
Myers also said healthcare costs and insurance premiums in the region could rise in the wake of the wildfires. Access and affordability of mental health services may also be strained.
“This is a terrible disaster. Our hearts go out to the thousands of families suffering after these fires,” Myers said. “Some of the videos and stories from these fires are heart wrenching. So many people have lost their homes, their pets and priceless keepsakes. So much of what was lost can never be replaced.”
Why AccuWeather’s estimates are drastically higher than others
AccuWeather’s preliminary estimate for the total damage and economic loss for the wildfires in Southern California is substantially higher than other estimates because many other organizations only focus on insured losses and direct losses.
AccuWeather experts consider the costs of immediate healthcare, long-term physical and mental healthcare, the financial impacts of excess deaths in the years following a disaster, and dozens of additional factors, to provide a more holistic and comprehensive scope of the long-term financial impacts.
“Damage estimates based only on insured losses and direct impacts grossly underestimate the long-term financial losses that families, businesses, and communities endure after a weather disaster,” Myers explained. “There are many compounding factors that can multiply the financial impacts in the months and years after a disaster. Damage estimates that solely consider immediate and insured losses cannot truly capture the immense magnitude of a tragedy like this, especially in a high-risk area where some insurers are canceling policies and leaving thousands of people underinsured or uninsured.”
With thousands of multi-million-dollar properties destroyed in one of the most expensive real estate markets in the nation, Myers said impacts to property values and a loss of tax revenue will have major ramifications for the region’s economy.
“The destructive fires will likely erode the tax base, which could lead to a cutback in public services or higher taxes,” Myers said. “This domino effect could worsen the migration out of California, as more families consider moving to states with lower taxes and a lower risk of wildfires.”
AccuWeather’s total damage and economic loss estimates also factor in cleanup costs, the value of home contents, damage to businesses, and medical facilities, infrastructure and vehicles, as well as temporary wage losses and permanent job losses. AccuWeather total damage and economic loss estimates also account for the financial impact of power outages from utility damage and power outages from planned public safety power shutoffs during wildfire threats, which can result in business disruptions and food spoilage impacting hundreds of thousands of people.
AccuWeather incorporates independent methods to evaluate all direct and indirect impacts of the storm and is based on a variety of sources, statistics and unique techniques AccuWeather uses to estimate the damage. It includes damage to property, job and wage losses, crops, infrastructure damage, interruption of the supply chain, auxiliary business losses and flight delays. The estimate also accounts for the costs of evacuations, relocations, emergency management and the extraordinary government expenses for cleanup operations and the long-term effects on business logistics, transportation and tourism as well as the health effects and the medical and other expenses of unreported deaths and injuries, as well as the long tail of negative impacts to physical and mental health that survivors may face in the next decade.